Ethanol Producing Plant Using Cassava, Maize Feedstock Launched In Zambia

A Chinese firm on July 24 launched an ethanol processing plant in central Zambia, which the government says will go a long way in helping the country tackle fuel problems and reduce poverty.

The $9 million plant, built by the Zhongkai International Company, will result in the creation of about 200 direct jobs while another 600,000 people are expected to benefit from the investment.

The plant will produce ethanol through agricultural products like cassava and maize. By-products like liquid fertilizer, biofuel and carbon dioxide will also be produced.

Full article...

Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia Targets 100,000 Tonnes Compound Fertilizer in 2019

Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia (NCZ) is targeting to produce 100,000 metric tonnes of D Compound fertiliser in 2019.

The firm has also started negotiations with Government on a possible contract of fertiliser supply for the 2019-20 farming season under the subsidy programme, evoucher – farmer input support programme.

Zambia Daily Mail

Zambia: Drought in 2018/19 Crop Season Causes Mixed Fortunes For Yields

by Jeff Kapembwa

 Zambia has recorded a mixed production of various crops following prolonged droughts that hit most parts of the country in the 2018/19 farming season with maize dropping by over 400,000 tonnes, a report by the Ministry of Agriculture has revealed.

Production of potatoes is forecast to increase to 38,786 tonnes from 13,546 tonnes recorded a season earlier, mixed beans set to rise in output to 58,705 tonnes from 52,451 tonnes, representing 12 percent increase.

Burley tobacco output is set to rise up to 8,417 tonnes from 5,102 tonnes, virgin tobacco production is set to slow down by four percent to 12,839 tonnes from 13,382 tonnes. but other crops were affected by army worms and over four months of dry spells.

Groundnuts production is set to decrease by 28 percent to 130,825 tonnes from the previous 181,772 tonnes with rice output forecast to decrease by 31.3 percent to 29,584 tonnes from an earlier 43,063 harvested in 2017/18 season.

National cassava flour production for 2018/19 season is poised to decrease by two percent to 1,009,146 tonnes from 1,025,575 tonnes of cassava flour, equivalent produced during the last season. Sorghum is seen declining by 49 percent to 6,684 tonnes from 13,130 tonnes yielded last season.

Millet is seen slowing down by 23 percent to 24,845 tonnes from an earlier 32,278 tonnes harvested last season. Soya beans is likely to decrease by seven percent to 281,389 tonnes from 302,720 tonnes. This is on account of 19.6 percent reduction in the national yield from 1.46 tonnes per hectare last season to 1.18 tonnes per hectare this season and reduced rainfall in some parts of the country.

Seed cotton production is forecast to reduce by 17.8 percent to 72,508 tonnes from 88,219 tonnes last season, Sweet potato production output is likely to slow down to 109,336 tonnes from 183,280 tonnes produced in the last season, representing a fall of 40 percent in output.

Cowpeas is likely to decline in production by 47.8 percent to 3,566 tonnes from 6,824 tonnes last season, sunflower is also expected to decline in output to 34,208 tonnes from, representing 28 percent.

Minister of Agriculture, Michael Kalombe, announced in a crop forecast report that maize output declined to 2,004,389 tonnes from last season’s 2,4 tonness, representing a decline of 16 percent.

Small and medium scale farmers are expected to contribute up to 94.5 percent or 1,893,845 tonnes to the total maize production, while the large scale farmers are expected to produce 110,544 tonnes.

National average yield rate for maize declined to 1.29 tonnes per hectare from 1.72 tonnes per hectare last season. Small and medium scale farmers recorded an average maize yield rate of 1.24 tonnes per hectare, representing a reduction from 1.68 tonnes per hectare. Large scale farmers recorded an average maize yield rate of 3.74 tonnes per hectare on account of reduced rains in the growing season.

Katambo noted that although there is a significant reduction in maize outturn, Zambia will carry over a total 474,515 tonnes of maize, it had as at 1 May this year. The Food Reserve Agency is holding 303,475 tonnes, and the Grain Traders Association has 51,474 tonnes.

The Millers Association of Zambia is bringing 21,204 tonnes while large scale farmers are holding 36,362 tonnes and small and medium scale farmers have 62,000 tonnes.

Total supply of maize available for the 2019/2020 marketing season is 2,478,389 tonnes. Of the 17 million maize consuming population in Zambia, the country requires 1,9 million tonnes, with 1,6 million tonnes reserved for human consumption and 409,018 tonnes for industrial consumption.

To ensure food security in Zambia, the country banned all export of maize and maize meal.

“All maize and mealie meal exports remain suspended,” added Katambo.

Recently, some stakeholders expressed reservations at government’s export policy inconsistencies, which have cost the country a staggering US$1.4 billion in earnings from foreign markets, where the crop is fetching an average US$290 a tonne, which if allowed to trade, would have helped ease foreign currency pressures.

Zambia’s foreign reserves fell to a low of US$1.2 billion in February, representing two months of import cover, according to central bank data.


Southern Times

Zambia Sugar Production Up By 47,000 tonnes

by Tryson Tembo

Improved cane supply and farming practices have resulted in Zambia Sugar increasing sugar production for the 2018/2019 farming season to 400,000 tonnes from 353,000 tonnes in the previous season.

During the period under review, cane supply and quality have been trending above those of the past three years mainly due to improved bulk water supply and infield irrigation.

Zambia Daily Mail

German agricultural concern invests US$25 million on Zambian dams

German company, Amatheon is constructing two dams at a cost of over US$25 million to boost farming activities through irrigation in the Mumbwa area of Zambia. The two dams Abba and Katanga, are expected to be fully operational by 2016/17, respectively.


Amatheon Agri Group founder and chief executive officer Carl Heinrich Bruhn said the total investment for Abba dam is over US$15.6 million while Katanga cost is US$10.6 million. Bruhn said Katanga is a joint venture between Amatheon Agri Zambia and Toyota Tsusho Corporation with intentions to develop 2,700 hectares of land for cropping of maize, wheat and soya beans while Abba is part of a farming bloc expansion to develop 10,000 hectares for irrigation farming as well as cattle ranching and rain-fed cropping.

Amatheon operates projects in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Uganda. 


African Agriculture

Japanese tobacco company to source from Zambian farmers

Japan Tobacco Inc. has signed a contract to source the leaf from 7,000 Zambian farmers. The company has had a presence as a buyer of Zambian tobacco for some years.

Zambia Daily Mail

Zambian farmers complain of late payments for maize sales to grain reserve body

The 2012/13 rain/cropping season in Zambia is just beginning, and some maize farmers complain that they are yet to be paid by the Food Reserve Agency  for deliveries of last season's harvest.

Vice President Guy Scott has apologised and appealed to small scale farmers to remain calm, saying  government was working on speeding up the payment process to farmers who supplied their maize to the FRA. He pledged that all suppliers would be paid by the end of November.

For some farmers, this will come too late to prepare for planting for optimal yields. Planting of maize in Zambia is advised for about mid-October.

African Agriculture

Zambian government to prop up ailing fertilizer producer

Making fertilizer more accessible to African farmers is a topic of perennial discussion.

Most of whatever fertilizer that reaches African farmers is imported, but a few countries have made efforts to produce their own, either by state-owned or private companies. But the fact that there is a huge demand for it does not necessarily mean fertilizer producers are able to easily mint money.

The obstacles they face are many, and vary from country to country.

What are the costs of inputs, versus what they can reasonably charge for their products? Are they allowed to charge market prices for this deeply 'political' commodity? If they are, how do their prices compare to those of imported products? Is electricity supply reliable enough to keep their plants operating at optimal, profitable capacity? Does the government (often the single biggest buyer) pay on time for product it has ordered?

And so on and so forth. Particularly for fertilizer companies in which the government has a stake, all sorts of political considerations in the way the companies are allowed to do business means they are often on the brink of insolvency. However, also because of the political nature of fertilizer and food security, many governments want to be seen to be supporting their fertilizer factories, even when they often are also the chief cause of the troubles of those companies. 

With that in mind, the Zambia Daily Mail (August 17)says the government will "recapitalize the Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia, to the tune of Kwacha 25 billion (US$ 4.8 million) by rehabilitating the ammonium nitrate plant in a bid to create jobs."

"Minister of Agriculture Emmanuel Chenda....said government was unable to find an equity partner after attempts to privatize the fertilizer company failed. And Mr Chenda said government awarded Nyiombo Investments a tender to supply (imported) fertilizer for the Farmer Input Support Programme after a transparent bidding process."

Why did the company fall on hard times in the first place? And why were there no eager bidders for equity in the company?

In the answers to those questions and many more are the 'secrets' to why many fertilizer companies in various African countries find the going very rough, and why there is still dependence mostly on imported fertilizer even where there is the edifice of a local fertilizer industry.

African Agriculture  

Zambia to double maize reserve to one million tonnes

"Instead of buying 500,000 tonnes of maize as strategic reserves we will increase that to 1 million tonnes so that we are in control of the situation," said Emmanuel Chenda, Zambia's minister of agriculture in August.

The boosting of the strategic reserves through locally purchased maize was to take place in the four months from July to October this year, he said. October is the beginning of the new rain and cropping season.

Zambia will also limit exports to keep prices of the staple food low as global grain prices surge, the minister said.

Chenda also said that the government will centralise the issuance of maize export permits to closely monitor sales outside the country. Zambia exports maize to countries within Africa, including South Africa.

The price of maize in Zambia is currently around 65,000 kwacha ($13.27) per 50 kg bag.

Zambia's maize output declined by about 6 percent to 2.8 million tonnes in the 2011/2012 season from 3 million tonnes last year.

Chenda said, however, Zambia still had a huge maize surplus because of carry-over stocks from last year but would be careful to ensure that local prices remained under control.




Reuters

Can cotton farming in Africa be made viable again?

Chido Makunike

Cotton farming in many African countries has declined over the decades.  Once a lucrative export crop whose farming was accessible to even small scale farmers, the cotton sectors in many African countries are a shadow of their former selves.

Among the challenges are global prices that are no longer as consistently profitable for farmers, the rising cost of inputs, comparatively low yield productivity, and the challenge of competing against countries that subsidize their cotton sectors. Many African countries that used to have important cotton ginning operations have seen them shrivel in the face of hard-to-beat competition (China), leaving the farmers even more vulnerable to distant market forces.  

An important part of Burkina Faso's coping strategy is to now rely on gene-modified seed for up to 40% of its cotton planting to try to increase per hectare yields. Good overall cropping conditions in the current 2012/13 growing season have yielded forecasts of 532,000 tonnes of cotton in the versus 414,000 tonnes last year.

In some countries organic cotton provides an interesting niche market for small numbers of farmers. But generally, the fortunes of African cotton farmers have been declining over the years.
 
Cotton farmers and buyers were this year engaged in price stand offs with each other in at least two countries; Zambia and Zimbabwe. Buyers were accused by farmers of offering much lower prices than they had promised at the start of the season. The buyers protested that a global cotton glut had driven down prices.
 
Governments had to be seen to intervene, and they made threatening noises against the buyers, but short of subdising the farmers in one way or another, which is always short term, there is little they can do. Regulating the sector can address various important issues, but price is the least amenable to regulation.

Rakesh Machanda explains some of the difficulties the cotton sector in Zambia faces, but his example could apply to many other countries. In that country a group of cotton farmers outraged at prices set on fire a truck carrying cotton lint. As in other countries, the 2010/11 prices had encouraged more cotton farmers to plant the crop, accounting fora rise in out put from 180,000 tonnes to this year's 200,000 tonnes.
   
He explains that the farmgate price of cotton In Zambia this year was half that of 2011. Smallholder cotton farming is labour-intensive at every step, and wages in Zambia in 2012 are double what they were in 2011, according to Machanda. Even before factoring in all other costs, this is obviously a losing proposition for the cotton farmer.

In an article entitled 'Cotton farmers’ return to field in doubt,' the Sunday Mail (Zimbabwe) said many discouraged farmers were likely to abandon growing the crop in future seasons, which is not at all surprising given the economics of farming it. This death of the cotton sector by attrition has been observed in many other countries over the years.

According to the article, 'Most farmers said they got an aver­age of $120 per hectare’s production, which was less than half the cost they incurred on inputs. This year cotton marketing was dis­rupted by a price impasse between gin­ners and farmers, with the former offer­ing as low as $0,29 per kg while the latter wanted at least $0,85.'

The price gap between farmers and buyers was huge, "and this season proved that even government cannot save us," said one farmer. The Zimbabwean government in July tried to help the farmers by decreeing prices of between 77 and 84 US cents per kilo for their cotton, but buyers ignored this and offered an average 35 cents a kilogramme.   

The cotton marketing situation was much the same in Malawi. Farmers were left grumbling about merchants' price offers (average US 36 cents/kg), which were below their costs of production and half the average prices of the 2010/11 season. That season's prices actually enticed many more farmers to grow cotton this season, causing Malawi's 2011/12 cotton harvest to rise to 244 000 tonnes compared to only 52 000 tonnes in 2012/11, according to a report President Joyce Banda presented to parliament in May.

Many of the farmers who took to growing cotton did so after having abandoned maize, whose bumper harvests in Malawi in recent years have lowered prices. Not even government assistance with various inputs was enough to make the farmers break even.

The problems of cotton farmers in some parts of Malawi (Zambia and Zimbabwe too) were compounded by long dry spells early in the 2011/2012 rain season, forcing some of them to replant up to three times.

The governments of the three neighbouring countries have pledged to get together to see how they could 'protect the interests of cotton growers.' But the various market and production forces they are trying to cushion their farmers against are probably more powerful than anything they can. 

Farmers in Malawi also suspect collusion between the cotton buying companies because they were said to all be offering the same price. If so, this would be a real-world example of how the 'free market' gospel often doesn't work as intended in undeveloped markets, and why governments often feel compelled to intervene in the marketing of crops.


The harsh environments (hot, dry, often marginal soils) in which cotton is often grown are not readily suitable for other crops, and certainly not many that fetch hard currency on the international market.

Burkina Faso's location in the dry, arid Sahel and cotton's role as the second most important foreign currency earner mean that despite the declining economy of farming it, there are no quickly, easily obvious alternatives. So the country has gladly received a $90 million grant from the World Bank to increase its cotton production, but it remains to be seen whether this will improve the sector's intrinsic viability/competitiveness in the face of global cotton trends, or whether the money would have been better spent to begin to explore how Burkina Faso can earnestly begin to reduce its economic dependence on cotton.  

The good/bad cotton marketing season of recent years are of course entirely normal. But the general trend over many years suggests that small scale cotton farmers in most African countries will find cotton an increasingly difficult crop from which to make a viable, let alone profitable living. It is time to help cotton farmers identify new niche crops.  


African Agriculture

Is Zambia's price subsidy to maize farmers sustainable?

In African countries where maize is the food starch of choice, everything to do with the crop's cultivation and marketing is deeply political. Unfortunately, this utterly dull-to-eat, increasingly hard-to-grow grain of relatively low nutritional value has been allowed to control the agricultural economics of several countries because of puzzling, mythic powers as 'the staple crop.'

Zambia is just one of many African countries enthralled by maize. So much so that the government is content to pay its maize farmers a higher purchase price than it then sells the maize for locally or abroad. Among the most important parts of Africa's Maize Mafia are farmers who must be paid prices attractive enough for them to continue growing enough of the crop to cover local needs.

But a contradictory part of that same mafia are the maize consumers (i.e. voters) who will remember maize prices at election time and reward/punish the ruling party accordingly. The maize consumers want/expect maize which is 'affordable.'

The contradiction of expectations between these two main groups often means the government subdizing maize to raise farm gate prices (above 'free' market) to keep farmers happy, but also subsidizing prices to consumers (below 'free' market) to keep consumers happy!

As long as it rains well for a good crop to be achieved and the government can find the money for this costly political balancing act, everybody stays more or less happy. But this is obviously a very unsustainable balancing act, as shown by how the balancing formula causes all sorts of distortions when there is a shortage or a surplus.

Zambia has enjoyed maize surpluses for several years. But if farmgate maize prices are allowed to fall too low in response to the glut, the farmers will not grow as much the following year, causing shortages which will drive up prices for maize consumers to levels that could cause disaffection with the ruling party.

The donor nations who support Zambia in various ways have recently been pointing out the unsustainability of this state of affairs, but even they recognize it is politically very difficult to stop maize subsidies.

The real pity is that so little effort is being paid to finding ways to reduce the dietary dependence so many Africans have developed for the dull-to-eat, poorly nutritious, ever-harder to grow (increasingly unpredictable rains, tired soils) crop of maize.

African Agriculture   
   

   

If the price of cotton fell by more than 50% since you planted, would you bother to harvest your crop?

Farming is a business, various ‘experts’ constantly tell farmers, as if they didn’t already know.

Other ‘experts’ preach the religion of the free market to governments, warning them to resist the temptation to interfere in the pricing or marketing of crops.

Here’s a current, real world example of how it is neither easy nor straightforward for governments to leave small scale farmers completely to the whims of the market.

Global cotton prices have slumped this year. Farmers in an area of Zambia who took up cultivation of the ‘white gold’ cash crop are in deep trouble because this year’s selling price is as low as half of last year’s. This is obviously a calamity for them.

The economics of the crop are so bad this year that the cotton farmers in Bbondo ward are reported to be leaving their ripe crop un-harvested in the fields, with some considering burning it.

As ZANIS (news agency) reports, ‘The farmers have decided to suffer double loss by not harvesting the crop only to sell at a give-away price.’

They are being urged to at least harvest the crop for storage, possibly for a time of better prices. That sounds like perfectly logical advice, but it assumes that the farmer can afford to hire labor to harvest and store the crop. This assumption is probably invalid where the bottom has fallen out of the cotton market. An already indebted farmer (seed, pesticides, fertilizer) who has no prospect of recovering his costs and paying his debts, let alone making a profit, must ponder if it makes sense for him to sink deeper into debt to harvest a crop that is a write-off for him anyway, no matter what he does now. And even if he wanted, the usual sources of credit (inputs vendors, family or local loan sharks, etc) are probably largely closed off anyway in a situation where everybody knows how low cotton prices are.

Some of these farmers abandoned maize to grow cotton. Zambia’s maize bumper harvests of recent years have been great for the country’s food security, but surplus means the price for farmers aren’t so great. Although the maize price is controlled by government to try to strike a balance between affordable prices for consumers and a motivating price for farmers, this is not an airtight system.

When the market is flooded, the producer price drops, especially in remote areas where the power of government edicts is often only theoretical. The government may announce a minimum price, but whether they will come to your remote village to buy your maize at that price is something else altogether. You may have to sell to private sector middle-men, whose offered price will be much lower than the government price in a time of surplus.

So these farmers have lost in a number of disastrous ways. They encounter not just huge losses on their cotton, but many of them possibly ruin, or at least years-long hardship from an investment that went very sour. Even if they would like to salvage their crop by harvesting and storing it, they may not be able to afford the added labor costs/losses of doing so. It is a sign of how bad the situation is when a farmer who has tended his or her crop in harsh conditions for months contemplates cutting his losses by abandoning it!

For those farmers who abandoned maize cultivation to devote all their resources to cotton, the situation is even more grave. They put all their eggs in one basket so cannot count on at least some income from maize proceeds. If they had counted on the ‘extra’ income from cotton for purchasing their maize needs, they don’t have that money and they don’t have any household maize stocks to fall back on.

Well, that’s how business is. Sometimes you win big, other times you lose big. ‘Farming is a business,’ tough luck, better luck next time, end of story.

But it cannot be the end of the story for the government concerned. It must be seen to be doing what it can to soften the blow for the farmers.

A councillor in Bbondo ward ‘has called on government to intervene in the pricing process and consider the plight of cotton farmers by adjusting the cotton price upwards.’

The free market/IMF-type response to this is that governments shouldn’t interfere in the workings of the market by fixing or shoring up prices. (At least in poor countries-rich countries are allowed to suspend the religion of free markets when it suits them-subsidies, price various supports, etc.)

The government may not be able to save the situation for these farmers, but neither can it be seen to have completely abandon them simply because that is the free market gospel according to the IMF and others.

The farmers have learned some very expensive lessons which they will no doubt be incorporating into how they do things in future, but they are also in deep trouble now, not tomorrow.

At least the farmers hadn’t planted GM cotton, whose itnputs costs are far higher, and whose seed cannot be saved in case you don’t have the money to buy new seed the following season, as is likely the case for the cotton farmers of Bbondo ward. But with the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) on the loose and with a presence in Zambia, it may be just a matter of time before the famous/infamous ‘Bt cotton’ is introduced. It will be recalled that the higher (often borrowed) costs of growing GM cotton have caused many farmer suicides in India when things didn’t go according to plan.

When the selling price of your crop drops as much as it has done with cotton this year, the ‘old fashioned,’ scorned, ‘low-yielding’ non-GM seed currently in use may be remembered with much fondness for a bad year still giving them the possibility to battle on the following year. Ts he armchair agriculturalists in various salaried isalaists ethose who say it is

African Agriculture

FAO official urges GM crops-wary Zambia to accept them

Zambia has consistently expressed its official opposition to GM crops, but as elsewhere in Africa, the pressure to adopt them is relentless.

FAO climate change expert Louis Bockel mainly used southern Africa's increasingly unpredictable weather patterns to argue for why it was now particularly important for countries like Zambia to take a new look at GM technology.

A few weeks before Bockel's April call, an official of Zambia's recently-elected ruling party reiterated the country's continuing misgivings about gene-modified crops.

''Farmers will have to develop new crop varieties or hybrids as a way to adapt. With climate change, you need to diversify into more resilient crops, plants that would be more water-efficient or drought-tolerant,'' the Times of Zambia reported Bockel as saying. ''During such times, you can not afford to ignore technology… you forget the myths.''

African Agriculture

World Bank advice for Zambia to stop setting maize price is a tall order politically

According to Reuters, The World Bank has urged Zambia's government to stop setting prices at which it buys maize from local farmers and allow the prices to be determined by the market to promote sustainable growth in the agriculture industry.

This is all very well,and sounds like good advice in theory, but has not always worked out so well in practice in the many African countries that have toyed with liberalizing their maize sectors. The standard mantra that this will lead to greater competition, increased and more stable maize supply and better prices for consumers often simply doesn't work out that way in countries with markets that are not well developed.

For instance, monopolies or a few dominate key player will often take advantage of liberalization to obviously squeeze the highest possible price out of the consumer. People may still buyer 'expensive' maize, especially in times of scarcity, but this can have political consequences because of the unfortunately too important role of the crop in the diets of many Africans. Consumers/voters expect maize to always be available, and at prices they consider affordable. When either condition does not obtain, the anger is often directed at the government. An excuse by them that they can't do much about the supply and price of maize 'because the World Bank advised us to leave price setting and marketing to the private sector' would simply not work politically, or practically for that matter.

It is somewhat surprising that the bureaucrats at the World Bank keep knocking their heads against the wall over this. You would think that after decades of giving this advice and having it rejected or fail to deliver the promised results, they would have thought to abandon their orthodoxy, think outside the box and offer more realistic advice for the stage of market development of most African countries.

For sure, setting an 'official' price for an important crop like maize also has its own problems. They include the hindrance of the development of a properly competitive market, as the WB points out. When the price set by the government is lower than that which farmers feel is necessary to make a reasonable return on their investment, shortages and other distortions result.

The Reuters article points out: 'The government normally buys the maize at higher prices than those offered by private buyers to ensure higher returns for the farmers. It then sells it at reduced prices, locally and within the region. The World Bank said the policy was costly and not sustainable in the long term and urged the government to review it.

While it is not hard to understand the political justifications of keeping maize prices low for citizens (i.e. voters!) it is not at all clear why the Zambian government passes on those below-market prices to foreign buyers as well.

There are problems with both the WB's unrealistic advice as well as the Zambian government's unsustainable  price policy. It seems neither group of bureaucrats is willing to think of a middle ground that considers both capitalist market imperatives as well as political realities.

African Agriculture    

Antipathy to GM crops still strong in Zambia, but is resistance ultimately futile?

Zambia has one of the strongest records of official opposition to GM crops in Africa. An official of the recently elected-into-power ruling party has re-iterated the country's opposition to GM technology and foods, but will Zambia be able to resist the seemingly increasing momentum of the GM tide?

Happily, Zambia has for several years enjoyed surpluses of its staple crop, maize. But during a period of a severe maize deficit several years ago, the country highlighted the strong feelings against GM crops in many African countries by refusing GM maize food aid donations from the US.

On March 30 2012, Wynter Kabimba, Secretary General of the ruling Patriotic Front said Zambia  'would not allow the iintroduction of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) because they pose a danger to food security and the environment.' He was quoted as asking rhetorically, 'Why would anyone want to introduce a technology that puts a whole population’s health at risk?'

Obviously his contentions are the subject of fierce and passionate international debate, but Kabimba's comments reflect the belief of many, perhaps most, in Zambia and many other countries.

But opinions are shifting rapidly, as shown by Kenya's recent decision to allow the importation of GM maize, and its trials and approvals of the commercial cultivation of other GM crops,a trend that is likely to grow in Africa. Who knows, while the ruling party.government says one thing, that doesn't mean that GM trials aren't quietly going on in the country!

African countries that are dependent on aid, or otherwise subject to the strong influence of a 'donor' nation like the US that also sees the aggressive promotion of GM technology as part of its strategic global interests are particularly susceptible to flip-flopping on this controversial issue. Wikileaks revealed that diplomacy, aid, arm-twisting and other 'inducements' are all part of the arsenal of promoting GM crops and reducing resistance to them in target countries.

Despite both countries' previously strong opposition to GM technology, the debate and politics of accepting/rejecting it is inevitably different between them. Zambia is a nearly universally fertile country with a mostly agriculture-friendly climate, plenty of water and large land mass with a low density for its population of 15 million. Kenya's much bigger population of 40 million is on a land mass not substantially bigger than Zambia's, but much of it is increasingly subject to erratic rain and drought. Zambia probably has far greater prospects of being maize sufficient fairly consistently than Kenya does, even if farming of most of the staple maize,as of most of everything else, is rain-fed in both countries.

From this angle one can argue that Kenya's controversial acceptance of GM technology to try to help meet its food needs is understandable, as is Zambia's continuing confident dismissal of the technology.

Still, as seen elsewhere, there are powerful forces working tirelessly to wear down the resistance to GM crops and technology! What a ruling party official says today does not necessarily tell us anything about what might be official policy five or ten years down the line.

African Agriculture

Zambia, Zimbabwe drastically revise maize harvest forecasts downwards

Zambia's production of maize from commercial farmers is this year expected to be as much as 80% less than that of the 2011 harvest, while neighboring Zimbabwe has 'written off' a third of its current maize crop.

Maize is the staple crop of both countries, and its cultivation in both mainly depends on rainfall. The current cropping season's (October-May) rains began late and have been characterized by long dry spells.

Zambia has enjoyed several years of good maize harvests on good rains and an inputs subsidy program for poor farmers. Zimbabwe has been battling for several years to recoup maize self-sufficiency after dramatic declines caused by a radical land reform exercise that started in 2000.

A spokesman for the Zambia National Farmers' Union said maize output by commercial farmers will fall to 60,000 tonnes, compared to 350,000 tonnes reaped in 2011. Projected yield figures for small scale maize farmers are still being complied.

In Zimbabwe, agriculture officials have announced that a third of the 1.689 million hectares put under maize cultivation for the 2011/12 cropping season had been declared a write-off. Production of maize had been rising from its low of 400,000 tonnes in 2007/08, to 1.35 million tonnes in 2010/11, although that was still less than the country's consumption requirement.

With almost all the countries of the sub-region expected to experience reduced harvests and maize deficits in the next several months, the effects of the poor farming season are likely to have wide and deep food security, economic and political consequences.

African Agriculture

Zambia to subsidize inputs for 'all cash crops?'

The newly elected Zambian government of President Michael Sata plans to broaden the country's current maize inputs subsidy to other crops.

The Zambia Daily Mail attributed the policy intention to a statement to that effect by Vice President Guy Scott.

In March 2011, the agriculture minister of the previous government of President Rupiah Banda said a total of 180,000 tonnes of various subsidized fertilizers were to be distributed for the 2011/12 cropping season (October-May). In 2010 the government distributed 90,000 tonnes of urea(nitrogen) and 60,000 tonnes of compound 'D' fertilizers.

Zambia's Farmer Input Support Programme was introduced in the early 2000s. As in other countries, it has been dogged by controversy. Meant for poor farmers who cannot afford the costs of the fertilizer, hybrid seeds and pesticides, there have been accusations that well-to-do farmers who are well-connected politically have often had preferential access to the subsidized inputs. It has also been alleged that it has served as a tool of political patronage. There have also been complaints from farmers that apart from cloudy criteria to access the inputs, they are also often availed late into the cropping season, reducing their potential benefits.

While popular with farmers, questions are perennially asked about the long-term ability of poor countries to sustain inputs subsidy programmes. Neighboring Malawi has had to cut back its equally popular and successful inputs subsidy programme as a result of the withdrawal of budgetary support by Western countries over a diplomatic spat over governance issues. Given these issues of cost and sustainability, Zambia would be setting somewhat of a precedent in the region if it went ahead and provided subsidized inputs for 'all cash crops,' as The Zambia Daily Mail reports him as saying.
     
Nevertheless, the inputs subsidy programme, along with good rains, has led to several years of surpluses of Zambia and the sub-region's main staple crop, maize. Erratic rains for the current season are expected to result in significantly lowered harvests this year.


African Agriculture

The possible challenges posed by Zambia’s maize exports to its neighbors

Zambia sold 226,229 tonnes of maize to countries in the southern, eastern and central African sub regions, for the marketing season up to January 27 2012.

The Times of Zambia reports (01 February 2012) that the Food Reserve Agency, which effectively also serves as the country’s maize marketing body, sold a total of 444,641 tonnes of maize valued at US$69million to the local market and in exports.

The FRA is the government body charged with buying maize from Zambian farmers, maintaining a strategic reserve of the staple crop and exporting any surplus. Zambia has enjoyed a number of years of good maize harvests, harvesting 3 million tonnes in the 2010/11 season, up slightly from the previous season’s 2.8 million tones.

Late and erratic rains during the current (October 2011-May 2012) maize growing season throughout the sub-region have raised alarms of a maize deficits in several countries, including Malawi and Zambia, which in recent years have made up for the production shortfalls in countries like Zimbabwe and others. With almost the whole region having experienced late and erratic rains, there is a real risk of significant maize shortages in many countries.

The current doubtful maize-growing season will severely test the overall food security strategy of Zambia. Having overcome the basic issue of producing enough maize for local consumption plus a surplus over a number of seasons, the 2012 harvest season may show whether enough has been done to prepare for poor maize seasons. There will be a political, economic and food security implications if the maize harvest is much lower than expected and if the FRA does not have enough of a reserve in its silos to cover the difference.

Questions will be asked about the wisdom of having exported so much of the surplus in the good years. On the other hand, the FRA has many capacity constraints that limit how much of any season’s surplus it can soak up. One key such constraint is limited storage facilities, which in 2011 saw some exposed stored maize being rained on.

Agriculture minister Emmanuel Chenda dismisses such concerns. According to a January 19 2012 Reuters report, he said, "We are monitoring the situation very carefully to ensure that we don't end up importing maize. I think we are standing on very firm ground in

terms of food security. We had more than one million tonnes of surplus maize. We decided to export 600,000 tonnes because we didn't have storage space and so far we

have sold 200,000 tonnes,"

Maize is, unfortunately, almost the very definition of ‘food security’ in many African countries. The given reason of lack of storage space for selling off some of Zambia’s maize surplus is basically sound. And of course, maize is also an economic commodity like any other, so if there is extra of it to earn a country hard currency export earnings, that is always welcome. 

The Reuters report quotes a Zambian economist as alleging that the Zambian government was buying the maize at above market prices and selling it at reduced prices. He said this meant the government was effectively using "Treasury funds to subsidize the region."

The economist did not explain why Zambia would export its maize at a loss, assuming his charge was true. But it must be pointed out that an additional element of the mythical importance that maize has been allowed to assume is that for many African countries, being able to export maize is seen as a matter of great national prestige; a universally understood marker in maize-dependent countries of agricultural success.

All this will be turned on its head if Zambia finds itself needing to import maize in 2012. The ‘prestige’ of maize surplus will suddenly turn to the ‘embarrassment’ of maize shortages and imports.

This will be further complicated by the maize deficits that seem likely throughout the region in 2012. A regional maize shortage would mean more expensive exports from further away.

When there are good rains, Zambia seems to have found the answers to growing enough maize for its needs plus a surplus. However, 2012’s expected poor maize harvest may expose the many remaining challenges that need to be addressed for longer-term food security. Among them is more investment in grain storage facilities, as well as an expansion in irrigated versus rain-fed maize cultivation.

African Agriculture

Erratic rains get Zambia maize crop off to poor start

by Chris Mfula

Erratic rainfall has delayed planting of Zambia's staple maize crop, raising the possibility of a poor harvest after several bumper seasons, the agriculture minister said in early January. But he said the country should have adequate reserves to see it through any rough patch.

"The beginning has not been good. Although it's too early to tell how things will unfold, we are very concerned. The rainfall pattern has been very patchy," Agriculture Minister Emmanuel Chenda told Reuters.

The planting season in Zambia usually begins with the rains which herald the start of the southern hemisphere summer season in October or November.

"As late as December 30 some people had not planted but in Zambia maize should normally be knee-high at that time. We saw a lot of people planting in December when they should be weeding," Chenda said.

Zambia has been reaping bumper yields, improving food security and lifting economic growth in a country where much of the population is comprised of rural peasants.


Higher food output has been attributed to state subsidies to farmers in the form of fertilizer and seed but subsistence farming in Zambia, like in much of Africa, relies heavily on rain in the absence of irrigation infrastructure.

Chenda, a minister in the government of populist President Michael Sata who was swept to power late last year, said the subsidies had been increased this growing season.

"We have increased the number of farmers receiving subsidised inputs under the farmer input support programme to about 1 million from about 800,000 last year," he said. "In terms of food security we are very safe because we have increased our maize reserves from 300,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes," he added.

Zambia's maize production in the 2010/2011 season was projected to rise to over 3 million tonnes from the 2.8 million tonnes produced in the 2009/2010 season, a crop forecast showed last year.

Farmers have reported that some of the maize in regional breadbasket South Africa has also been planted late but growing conditions have generally been favourable, though the country is importing yellow maize as it seems to have over-committed to export markets.

Reuters

Zambia considers setting up crop marketing board

According to the Times of Zambia, the government is considering setting up a central authority to be in charge of the marketing of various crops.

The newspaper quotes Agriculture minister Emmanuel Chenda as saying the country's current system in which the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) was the main buyer of key crops like maize was not satisfactory.
Chenda is said to have complained that amongst the problems FRA faced were poor accountability, storage facilities and quality.

Previous media reports have indicated a litany of other challenges, including the FRA delaying to pay farmers for delivered maize.

At the start of the current rain season in October 2011, there were also reports of exposed, unprotected FRA maize being rained on. The government was quick to insist that the problem was limited to a few FRA depots, and that the rain exposure was light and brief enough that the affected grain could be dried and saved.

Zambia has enjoyed bumper harvests of southern Africa's main staple crop in recent years, apparently overwhelming the country's silos. It has exported maize to several neighboring countries.


Most governments in predominantly maize-eating African countries play some role in its marketing because of its critical role for food security. But government-controlled maize (or other staple crop) marketing systems have a very uneven record in Africa. There is very frequently a clash between market forces and governments' desire to keep 'political' crops like maize affordable. Almost no African governments are willing to risk leaving maize prices entirely to market forces, especially in times of shortage, such as due to drought. But imposing price floors below prevailing market prices discourages farmers, and/or means governments subsidizing end-user prices, which is expensive and unsustainable.

Zambia's plans for a crop marketing board appear to be in their early stages, with Chenda asking for suggestions from citizens.