Kenyan Farmers Abandon Food Crops to Grow Herbal Stimulant

At this time of year, Albert Njeru's farm would usually be blanketed with shoulder-high rows of maize.

But not anymore. Now the fields of grain are gone, replaced by 2 acres (0.80 hectares) of bushy green muguka leaves, a potent legal stimulant that relieves fatigue.

"Muguka gives me a lot of money. Farming maize or beans used to give me losses," said the 45-year-old farmer at his home in Kanyuambora, a village in central Kenya.

As drought and erratic weather wreak havoc across rural Kenya, a growing number of farmers are abandoning traditional crops like maize and rice for the more lucrative muguka.

Njeru can make 30,000 Kenyan shillings ($290) in just one week selling muguka - five times more than he used to make selling maize or beans.

"It is green gold," he said.

A variety of khat, which produces a mild high when chewed, muguka is fast-growing, making it less vulnerable to large swings in weather conditions, and uses about half as much water as maize, Njeru explained.

The strain grown in Embu County, home to Njeru's farm, is strong and so consumers can buy less than with the other popular variety, miraa, which is grown further north in Meru. That is good news for muguka producers like Njeru, who said he was struggling to cultivate enough to keep up with demand.

But it is bad news for food supplies, said agriculture experts and local politicians, who warned of a potential food crop shortage as farmers clear their fields of staples to make way for muguka.

"Farmers are not interested in growing maize anymore. They want money in their pockets. Muguka is giving them that and a lot more, since they can use the profits to buy more nutritious food," said Martin Mwangi, a member of Embu County's assembly.

"But the long-term consequences could lead to food insecurity due to reduced production."

He pointed to neighbouring Kirinyaga County, where farmers are known for growing Kenya's highest-quality rice.

"Water used for irrigating rice is now being diverted into muguka fields," he cautioned.

DRUGS OR FOOD?

There is no official record of how many farmers have switched from growing food crops to muguka, said Mwangi. Nor is there data on how much land is being used for muguka, according to Kenya's Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA).

But Francis Kimori, chairman of the Mbeere Muguka Farmers Sacco, a savings and credit cooperative, estimated four out of every five households around the Mount Kenya region, including in Embu County, are farming the stimulant in some quantity.


Many have upgraded from mud huts to modern stone houses, he said. "It is changing livelihoods," he added.

Factors like failing rains and new pests, linked to climate change, have likely played a role in muguka's popularity at the expense of time-honoured crops such as maize, said Dickson Kibata, a technical officer at the AFA. Yet despite the extra income muguka brings, Kibata warned against relying solely on the narcotic plant.

"Cash-crop farming cannot be the silver bullet that will pull farmers out of poverty, because consumption patterns keep changing," he said by phone. "My advice to muguka farmers is to mix it with food crop farming to ensure the family food basket is secure, even as they look for money."

FOREST WARNING

Environmentalists and lawmakers have also voiced concerns over the impact of the stimulant cultivation boom on forests.

Every few months, the Atiriri Bururi ma Chuka community conservation group in Tharaka Nithi County reports several locals illegally growing an edible form of cannabis known as bhang in local forests, said its chairman Ngai M'Uboro. He expects it is only a matter of time before he and his colleagues start uncovering muguka farming in the area.

"If the forest is already suffering because of grazing and bhang, it will not be long before we see muguka growing in the forest," he said.

Muguka's potency is also making the authorities uncomfortable. In 2018, legislators in Mombasa and Kwale counties lobbied unsuccessfully for a sales and consumption ban on muguka over fears of addiction among young people.

The National Authority for the Campaign Against Alcohol and Drug Abuse supported the move, citing social and health worries.

"Muguka is worse than hard drugs because of its highly addictive nature. It is ruining homes, the country's youth and should be banned," said Victor Okioma, its chief executive.

SUPERMARKET SHELVES?

Yet, even with all the risks attached to muguka, many Kenyan farmers are hoping it will save their livelihoods.

Along a 300-km (185-mile) stretch of cropland from the edges of the capital Nairobi to the lowlands opening into northern Kenya, maize farmers have been struggling with drought.

Purity Muthoni, 32, a farmer from Kiriani village in central Kenya, said she would not hesitate to switch to muguka if she could. But the weather and soils where she lives, some 150 km from Njeru, are not suitable for growing the plant, she said.

Noting the risks of depending on one crop as a source of income, the Embu County government last year said it would start distributing macadamia and avocado seeds to farmers to help them diversify their cash crops.

But Njeru is not convinced any other crop can earn him the same returns he gets from muguka. If local leaders really wanted to help farmers, he said, they should find ways to add value to the plant by enhancing their access to industrial processing and retail opportunities.

"I will be very happy the day I see packaged muguka being sold in supermarkets as a quality-assured product," he said.

($1 = 102.9000 Kenyan shillings)

Original article...

Kenyan Farmers Grow Maize For Animal Feeds Amid Changing Climate

About a decade ago, maize was mainly grown in Kenya as a food crop, with the cereal being the east African nation’s staple. Over the years, however, many farmers are growing the crop for animal feeds in a shift prompted by the changing climatic conditions.

While some of the farmers, who are dairy keepers, are growing the crop to feed their herd, others are farming it for sale in what has turned out to be a more profitable business.

The rains in Kenya have become extremely erratic, affecting maize growing which is mainly rain-fed in the east African nation. This year, for instance, the long rain season in Kenya that usually lasts for three months from March to May was barely a month long, according to the Meteorological Department. This affected maize planting, with most of the crop in the country’s breadbaskets of western and Rift Valley currently at tussling stage instead of being harvested.

In other regions, however, most of the crop failed due to low rains. But farmers who plant the crop for making animal feeds – mainly silage – harvest at an early stage thus avoid ending up with a failed crop due to erratic weather.

Maize prices currently stand at an average of 3,500 shillings (about 33 U.S. dollars) for a 90kg bag but prices normally decline to as low as 10 dollars when most farmers harvest.

... the early harvesting saves farmers the cost of fighting pests, harvesting, drying and storing the grain before transporting it to the market for sale.

Maize is harvested for making silage at four months when their seeds are soft, but not milky if squeezed open. If harvested at the right stage, the crop has more starch than sugar.

Full article...

Rising Heat Making Nigerian Chicken Breeders Sweat

In the wake of a severe heatwave, popular Nigerian television host Ebuka Obi-Uchendu laments on Twitter that the brand of eggs he eats is missing from grocery shelves. On further inquiry, he is told that the suppliers of those eggs lost 5,000 of their chickens to sweltering weather - a problem that is a source of complaint among many Nigerians today.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that 2019 will be among the globe's hottest years on record. And Nigerian farmers - such as the poultry producers who provide Obi-Uchendu's eggs - are among those feeling the heat.

In Zaria in northern Nigeria, where recent temperatures have spiked to 36C, farmer Olusola John says the severe heat has been affecting his 600 chickens. "I lost some of my birds to it," he sighs. "My colleague sold off her birds because she couldn't cope with the stress."

John dreams of building a modern-style chicken house that could minimise his heat-related losses. But such a structure could cost as much as 19 million naira ($55,000) - more than the profits that he could recoup by selling his chickens.

Bamidele Oyeyiola ... has been in the poultry business for 15 years, and like the average Nigerian farmer, he relies on the local ecosystem to sustain him. Ironically, the recent heat has turned that very ecosystem into his biggest threat.

The farm where Oyeyiola rears 3,000 breeder-broilers - which cost 6,120 naira ($17) per chicken to produce, and which are among the most expensive chickens to raise - is a large open space with two big poultry houses, a water tank, a generator and living quarters that house six farmhands. "The cost of feeding is high, the cost of drugs is high and the cost of management is also very high," Oyeyiola says.

To create ventilation and airflow in high temperatures, Oyeyiola has built poultry houses that stand 13 feet high, face the wind, and are surrounded by trees. Constructing them cost 3.6 million naira ($10,000.)

Before Oyeyiola's hens can even start laying eggs, he feeds them for one year and four months and offers them round-the-clock surveillance. While they mature, Bamidele makes no sales. And during this time, some hens die - often due to extreme heat.

One of Oyeyiola's farmhands carries a pail of water to fill the troughs for the chickens, making more than five trips to the tap and back.

When the heat is unbearable for the chickens, Oyeyiola and his workers put ice blocks in the birds' water. But they can not regulate humidity or the internal temperature of the open-air poultry house.

Just as the Nigerian government doesn't help Oyeyiola with his chickens' bedding - sawdust that must be kept dry and changed at least twice a day - he says the government isn't lifting a finger to help his business beat the heat.

"If there was technology, the water would come there automatically, [and] the birds would drink at their convenience and adequately," Oyeyiola says. "But if you decide to put water in a bucket and the water finishes, the bird will also suffer, and that will also affect our production."

Oyeyiola and his workers breathe a sigh of relief around 4pm, when temperatures start to cool.

In poultry and piggery production, high temperatures hinder yields because they can retard reproductive cycles and boost mortality, says Adekunle Adedoyin Idowu, a senior lecturer at the University of Agriculture, Abeokuta.

Idowu notes that in Nigeria, mortality rates for poultry are increasing "to the level of at least 15 percent per annum".

The loss is not as severe on farms with modern technology, where yields and profits are higher. Agricultural producers who are wealthy enough to mitigate the effects of global warming can plant more productive crops and raise more poultry and livestock. This is why it is the more affluent Nigerian farmers who are now controlling the market, says Merlin Uwalaka, an environmental economist at the University of Alberta.

Olusola says he recently had to increase the number of times he gave water to his hens - and that he now performs this chore four times a day. "The weather," he tells Al Jazeera, "is not friendly to the birds."

Full article...

Contradiction between climate change findings and crop cultivation recommendations to Africa

There are now many studies which suggest that rising temperatures and reduced rainfall will make the farming of many African staples more difficult. So there is nothing particularly new or surprising about a new CGIAR study that says yields of maize, wheat and rice may significantly decrease as a result of climate change.

Among other things, the study says that in Africa maize output may decline by 10 to 20%. Irrigated wheat and rice could drop by 13 and 15% respectively in developing countries.

Yet just a few weeks ago there was a much publicized suggestion that Africa could and should be growing more wheat.

What should African countries do about wheat in light of these seemingly clashing findings?

Strictly speaking there is no real contradiction in them. The wheat study said Africa was in general only using up to about 15% of its wheat growing potential. So even if that full potential is going to be reduced, there is still a lot of scope to increase African wheat cultivation from its current low base.

But if African countries are already battling to raise lower-than-needed levels of the more basic staples, rice and maize, should they further thin their resources by significantly attempting to increase wheat production, even if they theoretically can? Would they perhaps be better advised to put all their energy and resources on increasing production of rice and maize before worrying about the 'luxury' staple of wheat?

The answers to these questions are far from easy.

Chido Makunike

African Agriculture

Small holder farmers in East Africa innovate climate change-coping strategies

Sometimes the news coverage about climate change and agriculture gives the impression that farmers are sitting around waiting for 'experts' at various conferences to come and show them how to cope with rapid changes in climate. But the fact is that constant adaptation to all sorts of variables is an integral part of farming.

This is confirmed by a study analyzing changing farming practices in East Africa amongst a sample of the region's small holder farmers in response to climate change. 

700 households were surveyed in four countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda).

Amongst the study's findings:
* 55 per cent of the households had taken up at least one crop that had a shorter growing cycle.

* 56% grew at least one drought-tolerant variety that could survive periods of heat and water scarcity. Some households had also picked up agroforestry, intercropping and crop rotation practices.

* 34 per cent of households had reduced their livestock herd sizes and 48 per cent are specifically growing crops for animal feed, rather than feeding them on existing crops.

African Agriculture

The un-asked background questions as Tanzanian farmers give drought-tolerant maize a try

Maize varieties being developed by the Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) are being tested in an arid area of Tanzania where farmers had increasingly abandoned ‘ordinary’ maize because of the low rain and low yields.

A May 14 Reuters AlertNet report says the results have been very encouraging, with initially skeptical farmers now enthusiastically talking about their greatly improved maize yields.

“I was not sure these seeds would be any good, but it’s amazing - they require little water and they grow fast,” said farmer Balisidya Jacob.

Marijani Mrisho said “It was very dry but the researchers told us to sow them,” he said. “I did not have to do any irrigation yet the seedlings looked good. I have filled up 30 bags of maize this season on my small farm. If I used normal seeds I could hardly get five bags. That’s why most farmers here shunned the crop initially,” he said.

Not only are the yields said to be much better than those for conventional seed (up tp50% higher, according to a WEMA researcher quoted in the report), maturity is said to be achieved in an average 75 days versus the normal 90 days.

It sounds good, although it uncomfortably also reads like a WEMA-sponsored visit by the reporter, with no tough questions being asked or featuring in the report.

Interestingly, there is no mention that WEMA project is based on gene-modification. That matters not necessarily as a judgment of gene-modification, but because it is so controversial as an answer to Africa’s crop yield challenges. Not mentioning that relevant detail almost seems as if the reporter, the publication or WEMA deliberately want to hide or downplay this aspect of the project, instead of tackling it head on.

Great about the claimed high yields even in very low rainfall conditions. What about the cost of the new seed varieties versus perceived affordability by the farmers?

This is not dealt with directly, but we are told ‘The researchers say villagers will eventually pay a subsidized rate of 200 Tanzanian shillings (about $0.13) per kilo.’

That’s nice, but how long will this subsidy last? Who is doing the subdizing? The mention of a subsidy implied that the WEMA promoters think/know that farmers would not be willing/able to pay the full unsubsidized prices for their new maize varieties. If so, what are the implications of this when the subsidy funds run out?

Finally, the article mentions that poor maize yields had made many of the farmers shift from growing their preferred maize staple to less-preferred but more drought-appropriate grains like millet and sorghum. That seems like a smart move, and does not put the farmers at the risk of depending on WEMA, outside seeds and subsidies that may not always be available in the future.

Question: Are the interests of the WEMA people for there to be an outlet for their seeds going up against the locally developed, locally-relevant adaptation strategies of the farmers? Are the farmers being inappropriately enslaved to a crop that they should fundamentally be moving away from growing and relying on as their main food staple?

WEMA has no incentive to encourage the asking of these important questions, but their absence represents  gaping holes in an otherwise interesting article.

African Agriculture

Cassava's climate change benefits provide an opportunity to reduce African maize dependence

by Chido Makunike

The predictions of the likely effects of climate change on agriculture in Africa have been negative, with already yearly increasing evidence that maize cultivation is becoming more difficult. Given the importance of maize as the maize staple food of many Africans, the implications for an already precarious food security may be dire.

But now comes the news that another important but neglected staple starch food, cassava, may actually thrive in the climatic conditions that are predicted for the Africa of the future. 

In tests of various climate change models by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture in Colombia, cassava did better than potatoes, maize, beans, bananas, millet and sorghum.

Andy Jarvis, the lead author of the report of the research, said, “It deals with almost anything the climate throws at it. It thrives in high temperatures, and if drought hits it simply shuts down until the rains come again. There’s no other staple out there with this level of toughness.”

African farmers are well acquanted with cassava's toughness, as evidence by its cultivation in even almost desert-like conditions where many other crops struggle to survive. It's secondary role to maize in the diets of many Africans is partly because of its longer preparation times and its even more bland taste.

Yet the slavish dependence on a crop, maize, which all the evidence suggests is no longer as well-suited to cultivation in large parts of Africa as it once was is a grave danger to the continent's food security.

Perhaps the new study's confirmation of cassava's particular resilience to cultivation in harsh climates could be used as a wedge to open a littler wider the door to making the point that Africa needs to put serious and urgent attention into developing alternatives to maize.

African Agriculture   
    

Climate change effects on West African cocoa may be coming true much earlier than predicted

A study conducted by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) that was released in September 2011 predicted that in 20 years time climate change could result in conditions that could seriously jeopardize cocoa cultivation in two key growing countries, Ghana and Ivory Coast, which account for more than 50% of global production.

Among other things, the study hypothesized that “an expected annual temperature rise of more than two degrees Celsius by 2050 will leave many of West Africa’s cocoa-producing areas too hot for chocolate.” But it warned that as early as 2030, when annual temperatures are expected to have gone up by one degree Celsius, many of today’s main cocoa-growing areas could be unsuitable for the crop.

The report then went on to suggest a number of coping strategies.

At the time of the report’s release, many people found it somewhat alarmist. Ghana’s Cocoboard was reported to have downplayed it, saying it was confident it had things well in hand for a climate change eventuality.

Yet less than six months after the release of the CIAT report, many of the worrying climate change events which were predicted for many years hence seem to have already hit some of the key cocoa-growing areas, especially in Ivory Coast.

While Ghana is celebrating having produced more than a million tonnes of cocoa in 2011, Ivory Coast’s present cocoa-growing season has been plagued by late-starting and erratic rains with long in-season dry spells that are expected to result in a harvest 8% lower than that of 2011.

It could be a downward blip that could be compensated for by good seasons in coming years> But the signs suggest that it would be prudent to begin to make preparation for the future with the assumption that this year’s unusual-for-Ivory Coast climate is a sign of things to come. It may turn out that the CIAT prediction of a significant climate effect on cocoa harvest by 2030 was not alarmist, but actually optimistic.

Cocoa is so important to the economies of Ghana and Ivory Coast that there is understandable resistance to contemplating a future in which it has a much reduced role, especially when there are no obvious cash crop alternatives to take its place. Besides, it is also tempting to dismiss Ivory Coast’s poorer than normal season as a localized event; especially since rain seasons have been largely normal in cocoa-growing regions of Ghana and Nigeria.

Yet examples from elsewhere in Africa point to adaptation needing to be done with even more urgency than even the experts have warned was necessary.

If the economies of Ghana and Ivory Coast are too dependent on cocoa as a cash crop, many countries in eastern and southern Africa are too reliant on maize as a staple crop. To an even more alarming extent than cocoa in West Africa, these regions have failed to heed the yearly signs that maize-growing is already becoming increasingly unsustainable over an ever-increasing proportion of their climatological zone. The various strategies currently employed to deal with this are unlikely to completely bridge the gap between rising maize needs and declining production.

Alternatives to maize will have to be sought, difficult to fathom or accept as that reality is for many people in these maize-obsessed regions. During Malawi, Zambia and South Africa’s recent string of maize ‘bumper harvests,’ the very suggestion that a future of reduced importance for maize may need to be urgently thought about would have seemed crazy. It probably still does, even as these three countries and several others contemplate possible maize deficits in the next few months. But ready or not, that is a reality that all these countries are going to have to face, perhaps not just ‘soon,’ but now.

Similarly, the reduced Ivorian cocoa harvest is probably a more realistic base from which to think about the crop’s future in West Africa than Ghana’s record harvest in 2011.

All three major West African cocoa-growing countries are taking steps to replace their aging cocoa bushes with newer, ‘improved’ stocks. This has long-needed to be done and will address some of the challenges of declining intrinsic productivity. But like GM maize in the increasingly-unsuitable parts of eastern and southern Africa, this may slightly postpone the day of reckoning for the cultivation of these crops, but not put it off indefinitely.

The problem is these are all approaching realities that no one wants to hear or think about.

African Agriculture

Some Zimbabwean farmers find climate change coping advice differs from their own experiences

In coping with less rain, some farmers in Zimbabwe’s perennially arid southern regions are relying more on the results of traditional knowledge and their own experimentation than on the advice given to them by government extension services.

According to a Reuters Alertnet report, ‘That is producing mixed results – and considerable frustration for government agricultural experts, who believe traditional knowledge alone will not be sufficient to protect farmers against changing rainfall conditions.’

For several decades, the use of hybrid maize seed has been the norm even amongst small scale farmers in Zimbabwe, driven by well developed seed marketing and research services. In recent years farmers have been encouraged to plant more ‘short-season’ and drought-resistant maize varieties to cope with shorter, increasingly erratic rain seasons.

But one farmer interviewed said that the newer varieties have not consistently produced a good crop on her community’s land, apparently because of very poor rains. Susan Gama and other farmers do not automatically reject planting advice from government experts, but they have found it necessary to find their own locally relevant coping strategies.

As an example, “What we do is mix our planting and combine the harvested seed from the previous year and what we buy from the shops and compare outcomes," she said.

According to villagers, this mixing of seeds has helped improve the harvests. According to villagers, this mixing of seeds has helped improve the harvests.

Where Gama’s plot previously produced 50 bags of maize at 90 kg each, last season she harvested 70 bags, spurring others in this small farming community to experiment with her method.

Other farmers are resorting to more frequent crop rotation, and to greater use of mixed cropping on different parts of their land, to decrease the chances of a total failure of their crops.

more…Reuters Alertnet

Could drought threaten South Africa's rooibos tea?

by Pumza Fihlani

The world has developed a taste for South Africa's rooibos tea in recent years, mainly because of its perceived health benefits.

Annual exports have quadrupled since 1999 to 8,000 tonnes, proving a rare lifeline for residents of the harsh Suid Bokkeveld region where it grows. But the tea only grows in this small area and erratic weather patterns - blamed by some on climate change - mean the plant and the new industry are now under threat.

Small-scale farmer Jan Fryer, 53, has been growing rooibos on a communal farm for the past seven years. Despite growing tea for more than 20 years, Mr Fryer says the new climate rhythm has made him something of a novice in the field.

"The temperatures are definitely getting hotter and because of this is it more difficult for the rooibos plant to grow," he says. "The soil becomes too hot and the root of the plant burns and dies making the seedlings wilt and die before they even get a chance to become proper plants. We've had to change how we plant because of this."

The Suid Bokkeveld has always been a tough place to live – temperatures drop to 0C during winter and rise to a scorching 48C in the height of summer. But farmers say rooibos has become increasingly difficult to work with in recent years. As a result the planting season has changed from June-July to November, says Mr Fryer.

The industry is labour-intensive and provides about 4,500 jobs with a lot of work done by hand mainly by non- or semi-skilled workers.

The main foreign markets for the herbal tea are the UK, Germany, Netherlands, the US and Japan, according to the Department of Agriculture.

In 2000, about 4,500 tonnes of the leaves were sold abroad, more than twice the amount for 1999 and exports have now doubled again.

Rooibos is particularly vulnerable to changes in the weather as it only grows in about 20,000km sq of the Suid Bokkeveld due to the region's biodiversity. The herbal plant needs specific bacteria and fungi to be present in the soil as well as certain bees and wasps which are only found here.

There are two types of the plant - cultivated rooibos and wild rooibos. Wild rooibos has flourished in the region for many centuries and only recently became a commercial product. With a stronger taste, this more exotic tea fetches a higher price on the local and international markets.

But in 2003 the area was hit by a severe drought, which lasted for three years. More than half the cultivated rooibos was destroyed; it was the wild plants which helped sustain the industry.

"During the drought it became important for us to teach farmers to shift their focus from farming cultivated rooibos to wild rooibos, which proved more resilient to drought and changing conditions," says Noel Oettle of Environmental Monitoring Group (EMG).

Farmers have also moved from planting rooibos seedlings to planting seeds directly into the soil. While they take longer to germinate, seeds are more resilient and stand a better chance of yielding any kind of harvest, experts have told farmers here.

Today environmentalists warn that a similar drought is on the cards in the next few years. They say the future of this herbal brew is squarely in the hands of the farmers.


BBC

Bad rains in 2012 further expose the dangerous unsuitability of maize as the basis of African food security

by Chido Makunike

Across southern Africa, February is normally about halfway into the rain season. But in many countries, rains that were expected in October only significantly began in  December. There have been reports of long in-season dry spells in addition to the late rains.

Even if those rains are now heavy from now on until the end of the season in April/May, these conditions represent a potential food security disaster for the entire region. All of central/southern Africa defines ‘food security’ mainly by how much maize is harvested every year.

Optimum maize yields depend on quite precise cultivation requirements, including most favorable planting dates, nutrient amounts and water distribution. The current season’s weather conditions mean that none of these optimal conditions exist.

Unusually but necessarily early, there is alarm being raised about the huge implications of this. Malawi, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe are just some of the countries that have already begun to significantly revise downwards their maize yield forecasts. In recent years the good maize performance of Malawi and Zambia has helped plug the gap in neighboring countries, but this year the whole region will likely be suffering a maize deficit.

Good rains between now and May could salvage the situation somewhat, but the reality is that the likelihood of the maize harvest forecast becoming worse seems stronger than the chances of conditions getting better, for several reasons.

Malawi has been lauded for its inputs subsidy programme, which has helped it achieve maize self-sufficiency and surplus in recent years. Several other countries in the region have less well-known and perhaps less extensive than Malawi’s subsidy programmes of their own. All of them are based on supplying farmers seed and fertilizer for an October/early November planting. Farmers proceed to plant on the basis of a mixture of watching the weather, meteorological and historical data; with the first signs of the soil-soaking rain from mid-October being sign as the go-ahead to plant. In previous decades of much greater climate predictability than now, some farmers would even plant by date rather than by watching the skies; so taken for granted could be the first rains.

In 2011, the subsequent long dry spells that followed these early rains have led to many farmers having to dig up their wilting or wilted maize plans in December. Many replanted when the rains eventually ‘properly’ came, but under obviously very different conditions from those of October. The farmer who planted with subsidized fertilizer and hybrid seed in October will not again have access to them in December/January. That means much of the replanting will be without fertilizer, and with previously saved seed, rather than with fresh hybrid seed. Particularly where soils are poor and hoped-for subsidy fertilizer access has been the exclusive soil fertility ‘strategy,’ these factors alone mean a vastly reduced yield is almost certain.

Add to this the fact that there is no guarantee that the rest of the rain season is going to be ‘normal.’ It could continue to be characterized by low rainfall and long dry spells, depressing expected yields even further.   

It remains to be seen whether the rest of the season will be such as to ‘merely’ mean greatly lowered maize yields (Zimbabwe has already forecast a stunning 35% reduction in the expected harvest) or a disastrous regional famine.

Reliance on rain fed maize for food security means that if next season’s climate conditions are similar to this season’s, a food calamity similar to that in parts of East Africa is not alarmist to contemplate. Even in what can be considered ‘normal’ rain seasons, there are perennially dry parts of many of the countries of southern Africa that are almost always quietly in maize famine anyway.

None of the climate change mitigation strategies that are talked about (or perhaps more cynically but accurately, ‘talked at’) envision a changed farming scenario so immediate and so drastic. What has been talked about/at as something needing solutions at some time in the future is here right now.  

The coping strategies being half-heartedly discussed are totally inadequate to the scale and immediacy of the problem. In fairness, there are simply no easy answers. However, the potential African maize famine of 2012 is another pointer at what many refuse to wrap their minds around accepting: the increasing unsuitability of maize as the basis of African food security.

A fertilizer subsidy is of little help when there is no rainfall. It would be interesting to know to what extent applied fertilizer that was not then followed by sufficient rain actually scorched developing maize plants. The much hyped Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) project will no doubt get more publicity in the coming weeks and months. Perhaps it will play some role in extending maize cultivation in areas whose ability to support this crop is clearly falling. However, strategies like WEMA only address the symptoms of Africa’s now unsustainable maize dependence, not the basic problem itself.

But there seems no escaping the fact that there are many and increasing signs that the fundamental problem is no longer how to grow maize in Africa’s increasingly maize-unsuitable conditions. Instead, the fundamental problem is one of mind set: refusing to accept that this iconic food crop should simply no longer be the basis on which hundreds of millions of African define their food security. It has long been obvious that it is time to concentrate minds, resources and efforts on alternatives, new or old, to maize.

Apart from the huge difficulty of such a mindset change, there is a humongous local and international multi-sector, multi-linked ‘maize cartel’ whose interests would obviously suffer from any decrease in the importance of maize in Africa: researchers, traders, governments, politicians, the aid ‘industry,’ farmers, and countless others. Yet their combined power and interests are simply not going to enough to change the fact that maize dependence is one of the greatest threats to Africa’s security. If anything good is to come out of the great African maize potential famine of 2012, it is to make it clearer than ever before how Africa’s ‘love’ for carbohydrate/starch that comes from maize is a form of tyranny even worse than the most autocratic government.

All the issues that will be discussed are now pretty standard and well known. However, as long as the next low-rainfall famine does not spur more discussion about why there continues to be so much focus on maize, a crop there is now clearly much evidence of no longer being suitable for cultivation in large parts of Africa, much of the weeping and wailing will merely be hypocritical crocodile tears.

It’s time to topple the tyranny of Africa’s dependence on maize for food security with a fundamental mindset change. The answers may still not be easy, but they are likely to not be forthcoming at all as long as so many remain stuck in the un-necessary linkage of food security in Africa to maize. There is nothing particularly special about maize as a source of starch, while much of Africa’s climate and soils are screaming out the message that maize is an increasingly inappropriate crop. At least part of the reason for famine is that no one is listening to this very clear message. The impending maize harvest disaster that the current farming season’s rainfall pattern suggests will hopefully make that message clearer.

 

African Agriculture

Malawi’s farm output may be hindered by late rains

by Frank Jomo

Late rains in Malawi may reduce the country’s agricultural production, according to the southeast African country’s Farmers Union.

Rains in the southern African nation, which usually start between October and November, only came to several districts around the beginning of the year and  some farmers have pulled up plantings due to wilting , the union said.

“Malawi’s southern region will be affected most because this is the area where rains come first,” Felix Jumbe, the union’s president, said. “The farmers who have uprooted their seedlings must be helped quickly,” he said. “We also need to plan on which crops to promote in the wake of adverse weather conditions,” Jumbe said, adding that now that rains have started, “there is hope the impact will be minimal.”

“We will carry out crop estimates sometime in April,” Secretary for Agriculture Erica Maganga said. “That is the only time we will know how much damage the rains have caused on agriculture production.”

Malawi relies on tobacco for 60 percent of its foreign exchange earnings, with tea the second-largest earner. Corn is the country’s staple food.

Bloomberg

Erratic rains get Zambia maize crop off to poor start

by Chris Mfula

Erratic rainfall has delayed planting of Zambia's staple maize crop, raising the possibility of a poor harvest after several bumper seasons, the agriculture minister said in early January. But he said the country should have adequate reserves to see it through any rough patch.

"The beginning has not been good. Although it's too early to tell how things will unfold, we are very concerned. The rainfall pattern has been very patchy," Agriculture Minister Emmanuel Chenda told Reuters.

The planting season in Zambia usually begins with the rains which herald the start of the southern hemisphere summer season in October or November.

"As late as December 30 some people had not planted but in Zambia maize should normally be knee-high at that time. We saw a lot of people planting in December when they should be weeding," Chenda said.

Zambia has been reaping bumper yields, improving food security and lifting economic growth in a country where much of the population is comprised of rural peasants.


Higher food output has been attributed to state subsidies to farmers in the form of fertilizer and seed but subsistence farming in Zambia, like in much of Africa, relies heavily on rain in the absence of irrigation infrastructure.

Chenda, a minister in the government of populist President Michael Sata who was swept to power late last year, said the subsidies had been increased this growing season.

"We have increased the number of farmers receiving subsidised inputs under the farmer input support programme to about 1 million from about 800,000 last year," he said. "In terms of food security we are very safe because we have increased our maize reserves from 300,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes," he added.

Zambia's maize production in the 2010/2011 season was projected to rise to over 3 million tonnes from the 2.8 million tonnes produced in the 2009/2010 season, a crop forecast showed last year.

Farmers have reported that some of the maize in regional breadbasket South Africa has also been planted late but growing conditions have generally been favourable, though the country is importing yellow maize as it seems to have over-committed to export markets.

Reuters

Zimbabwe maize harvest to fall 35% on late rains

by Godfrey Marawanyika

Zimbabwe planted 247,000 hectares (610,350 acres) of corn from November to January, down from 379,993 hectares in same period a year earlier as a result of late rains, Agricultural Extension Services said.

The country’s farmers planted 130,944 hectares of sorghum and other small grains, compared with 136,131 hectares, the government organization, known as Agritex, said in a crop report handed out in Harare, the capital.

“It looks like this year is going to be a bad year, in terms of crop output,” said Seiso Moyo, the deputy agriculture minister. “We will inform government on what needs to be done, but indications are that it will not be a good year.”

The United Nations said Dec. 9 it was seeking $268 million to help feed as many as 1.45 million people in the country this year.

Cotton planting also decreased from last season. A total of 45,000 hectares were planted, compared with 107,727 hectares last season. Farmers planted soybeans on 5,079 hectares compared with 13,674 hectares, and tobacco on 39,393 hectares compared with 43,545 hectares.

Business Week

Political unrest and drought endanger Ivory Coast cocoa output

Political unrest in the Ivory Coast, where 40 per cent of the world’s cocoa beans are grown, has ‘significantly’ depleted the number of certified fair trade cocoa farmers. Many have fled the West ­African country, while fair trade training programmes have also come to a halt because of the danger farmers face in rural areas.

The situation is already affecting chocolate manufacturers, who are facing the highest cocoa prices for over 30 years. Prices jumped by 10 per cent this month alone. Analysts are predicting they could soon hit $3,720 per metric tonne - a level last seen in January 1979.

more...Daily Mail

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that lower than normal rain and hot weather in late January may also cocoa Ivorian reduce yields

Farmers, who need abundant rainfall and spells of sunny weather to grow cocoa, the main ingredient for making chocolate, said the long dry spell had killed many young trees.
African Agriculture

Erratic rain threatens Zambia's food security

by Shamaoma Musonda

The government of Zambia has said the erratic rainfall being experienced in the country could affect the 2011-2012 maize harvest and threaten the national food security.

Agriculture Minister Emmanuel Chenda said in the government was "very concerned" about the rainfall pattern, saying he had also seen farmers plant the seed late and wondered whether the rains would be able to sustain late planting. He said a poor harvest, which could come off the back of a back-to-back bumper harvest including last season’s record 3.1 million tonnes of maize, could affect planning in the next farming season.

"We are obviously very, very concerned at the erratic rainfall in the country, some other places have been totally dry while others saw farmers plant as late as January 1. We have sent officers in the field to make an assessment and we shall do another assessment in February," he said.

He said government now wanted to know what levels of damage the drought could have on Zambia’s staple food and hoped that the farmers who were planting late were using the right maize variety, one which could mature early. Chenda admitted that rainfall in the beginning had not been good enough with the pattern being patchy but was hopeful that the situation would change for the better. He hoped there would be enough rain to at least meet the almost two million tonnes national consumption.

Zambia's planting season normally starts with the onset of the rains in October.

Previously, Chenda announced that the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) had increased the national strategic reserve of the staple crops in view of patchy rains bordering on the drought.

This is coming after Zambia exported more than 496,000 tonnes of maize valued at K427 billion to its neighbours from September last year to October this year. This is after a bumper harvest left a surplus of 1.6 million tonnes.

The maize was exported to Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Botswana, Burundi and Namibia. About 300,000 tonnes valued at K250 billion kwacha was sold on the local market.

The total maize stocks held by FRA by October 2011 amounted to more than 1.9 million tonnes, including about 300,000 tonnes in carryover stock from the 2009/2010 season.

The FRA planned to sell slightly more than one million tonnes of maize soon and use the proceeds to pay back loans the agency obtained from commercial banks.

Times of Zambia

Africa divided over climate-smart agriculture

by Sean Christie

Agriculture is a big issue for the Africa Group at COP17, with many African delegates sporting "No Agriculture, No Deal" badges and many a speech ending with the same slogan. In week two of the conference the Africa Group's push for a separate set of negotiations on agriculture, a "work programme for agriculture" in the parlance of the conference, appears to be breaking up under the strain of both external and internal differences.

Speaking on condition of anonymity a negotiator for a West African nation said the Africa Group -- given the fact that "two-thirds of Africans are dependent on agriculture and are thus extremely vulnerable to climate change" -- had agreed before the Durban conference that agriculture should be "dealt with as an adaptation issue" rather than a mitigation issue, "which we have always feared would lead to developing nations forcing carbon markets on Africa, thereby avoiding putting money up for adaptation".

However, the situation changed on Wednesday when the high-level negotiations began with "Canada, the United States and Australia suddenly insisting that there would be no deal on agriculture unless it was also dealt with as a mitigation issue. It has been disappointing to hear some members of the Africa Group suddenly talking as if discussing agriculture as a mitigation issue is now acceptable," said the negotiator.

While decisions are made behind closed doors at COP17, we visit communities with local water project Umphilo WaManzi, which is helping people adapt to changing weather patterns and educating them on how to be conscious of and protect their water supply.
The source did not say which African countries were amenable to discussing agriculture as a mitigation issue, which involves the development of soil carbon markets, but South Africa's role in building African consensus around the concept of "climate-smart agriculture", which has soil carbon capture as one of several ways to help farmers respond to climate change, has been sharply criticised by some non-governmental organisations.

"It's a textbook case of the developed world using an influential regional power to manufacture consensus around a strategy that suits the developed world but is not in the best interests of Africa's small-scale farmers," said Teresa Anderson of the Gaia Foundation, adding that South African Agriculture Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson "suddenly started advocating climate-smart agriculture at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation's conference in Rome in June and, by September, she had organised, with World Bank funds, a meeting with African's environmental ministers in Johannesburg at which they supported the concept. Not all the African negotiators are happy with the pace at which all of this happened," said Anderson.

Senyi Nafo, spokesperson for the Africa Group, said there had been "intense discussion" about the suitability of climate-smart agriculture to Africa's climate change problems.

"I personally don't believe there is any such thing as climate-smart agriculture -- I believe in developmental agriculture and any concept which allows the negotiation focus to fall on mitigation rather than adaptation."

Africa Group chairperson Tosi Mpanu-Mpanu said carbon markets would not work for Africa because the majority of African farmers farmed on fewer than two hectares of land, "which is not enough to sequester an amount of carbon that it would be meaningful to sell. We're very suspicious that offset schemes will lead to the perversion of African agriculture, with farmers farming what is incentivised and giving up traditional crops."

Harjeet Singh of ActionAid International said that farmers with fewer than two hectares would only be able to make $3 a year at the present rate for carbon. He said he did not doubt the intentions of South Africa in "pushing for climate-smart agriculture as the answer to agriculture's problems" but added that "climate-smart agriculture could benefit South Africa a lot because your farmers are large-scale and carbon markets work for agriculture on the industrial scale".

Even South African Planning Min­ister Trevor Manuel, who co-chairs the Green Climate Fund, weighed in on the issue at a COP17 side event, saying "one hears all this talk of carbon markets but Africa only produces 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions and South Africa produces half that amount, so tell me, where is this market, for what carbon?"

Ghana, Mali and Tanzania are said to be prominent among the Africa Group's carbon-smart agriculture naysayers and apparently held up the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment's September declaration in support of the drive for an agriculture work programme at the COP17 conference.

According to the Mail & Guardian's source, "they insisted that agriculture be dealt with as an adaptation issue under the Cancun Adaptation Framework and expressed concern that an endorsement of climate-smart agriculture would open the door for agriculture to be discussed as a mitigation issue. In the end, they endorsed the concept, but their fears have been realised at COP17, with developed nations insisting on carbon markets.

"The time is coming when these African nations will simply say, 'enough, we're being tricked'."


Mail and Guardian

Botswana’s 40-degree centigrade heat frizzles the maize crop

by Thobile Hans

The Botswana government has vehemently embraced the Africa Group and the G77+China positions at the Durban COP17 climate change negotiations.

Speaking at the high-level plenary, Botswana Minister of Environment Wildlife and Tourism Onkokame Mokaila said they were “highly optimistic that we can collectively reaffirm our commitment and common interest to the UN Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bali Action Plan as guiding principles and a road map to sustainable development”.

Since discussions started under the UNFCCC, emissions “have not reduced”

“The negative impacts of climate change have continued to erode our development effort as developing countries,” he said.

Botswana expected the Durban conference to take decisions on the second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol and to fully operationalise the Cancun Agreement, including the establishment and capitalization of the Green Climate Fund to provide necessary initial start-up.

Botswana was semi-arid and landlocked and vulnerable to climate change.

“The effects of climate change have manifested themselves in frequent and severe droughts, floods, storms and heat waves. Botswana has. of late, been experiencing unprecedented temperatures of 41 degrees Celsius. ”

He painted a damning picture.

“A 30 percent reduction in yield of cereal crop comprising maize and sorghum was attributed to extreme temperatures. Cereal crop occupies approximately 75% of land under arable agriculture. This has exacerbated our food security problem and remains a threat to our poverty eradication efforts. The demand on our disaster preparedness and response is increasingly placing a heavy burden on our limited resources.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted with “over 80 percent certainty” that Botswana was facing water scarcity.

“It is against this backdrop that we have taken adaptation as a priority in order to attain resilience to climate change.

Reporting Development Network

Scientists reveal where cultivation conditions today mirror future climates

With climate change posing a threat to food production around the world, scientists are developing a form of virtual time travel that can offer farmers in many countries a glimpse of their future by identifying regions where growing conditions today match those that will exist 20 years from now, according to a new report from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

"Climate Analogues: Finding Tomorrow's Agriculture Today" is an effort by CCAFS to make climate change adaptation a more tangible endeavor by encouraging the exchange of knowledge between communities around the world regarding current agriculture practices that can help farmers maintain productivity in the future, despite potentially dramatic shifts in growing conditions.

"Climate change will significantly alter growing conditions, but in most places the new farming environment will not be novel in the global context," said Julian Ramirez, a scientist based at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Colombia and a lead author of the study. "Rather, the situation in the future will closely resemble conditions that already exist in other parts of the world. Making these links might offer clues about practical, proven approaches that could enable poor people dependent on agriculture to adapt their farming to changes in temperature and precipitation."

For example, according to CCAFS analysis, by 2030, maize producers around Durban, South Africa—which is hosting the current round of international climate change negotiations—could face a one degree increase in temperature during the maize growing season. Studies by Stanford University and others indicate that such an increase would reduce yields by about 20% in the absence of adaptive measures. But maize farmers in Argentina and Uruguay are growing maize successfully today under average temperatures that are three degrees higher.

Similarly, soybean farmers in Argentina as well as in the central and southern United States are already managing conditions similar to the ones that soybean growers around Shanghai, China, will experience within about 20 years.

"If Chinese farmers want to continue growing soybean, they need to look at the kinds of farming practices and crop varieties that farmers in northern Argentina and other analogue regions are growing," said Andy Jarvis, who is leading the project at CIAT and is also a research theme leader for the CCAFS.

CCAFS researchers note that the climate analogues tool currently compares locations based on similarities in precipitation and temperature. It is also designed to identify analogues based on other features-data on soil type and even social and economic conditions are incorporated into the tool.

The tool can also be used in the reverse—looking at one particular location to identify where similar climates might be in 2030. To illustrate the concept, an analogue of present-day Los Angeles, California shows that the southern parts of United States' eastern seaboard and France, northern Germany, and the Netherlands might experience Hollywood's traditionally mild winter months (December to February) by 2030.

In 2012, the research team will pilot a series of farmer exchanges between sites in East and West Africa and South Asia to help farmers see for themselves the changes in store and learn about adaptation strategies that could be applied back home. The farmer-to-farmer exchanges will also help researchers understand whether successful adaptation options in one place are indeed transferable to another.

"The analogues tool is rooted in the basic notion that for centuries farmers have been innovating and adapting in response to shifting conditions, providing a rich source of information on how agricultural systems can adapt to climate change," said Jarvis. "Our goal is to develop an inventory of local knowledge from around the world while linking regions that face similar challenges. We are in many ways turning the world into a laboratory for climate change adaptation."

"The climate analogues approach to adaption reinforces the broader message that maintaining food security in a world of dramatic and accelerated climate shifts will require new commitment to global cooperation," said Jarvis.

"As ministers, heads of state and thousands of delegates gather in Durban to negotiate a future climate deal, agriculture is making its way up the agenda, but it is still not getting the attention it deserves," said Bruce Campbell, director of the CGIAR Climate Program.

"Food security is the bedrock of global stability and with climate change having such a profound effect on food production, farming must figure prominently in the Durban negotiations," Campbell said. "The research community is developing some exciting ways to deal with both agricultural adaptation and climate change mitigation, but we need countries to create the right mix of policies and incentives to help move this work forward."

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

Mali leads in farming-related climate change mitigation effort

Climate change affects agriculture in Africa more than in the rest of the world and that can cause hunger in various countries there. But it is possible for governments to fight the problem, delegates at the climate change conference, COP 17, in Durban heard.

An example is the West African country of Mali, which ranks as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate-related hunger, even though the country's carbon emissions are minimal. However, instead of waiting for disaster to strike, the government there is taking steps to adapt.

The government of Mali shared the lessons they learnt in agriculture and climate at a session at COP 17.

Souleymane Cissé, from the Malian environment ministry, commented: "The paradox is although Mali isn't producing carbon emissions, we are the first victim of climate change. We could not stand by and do nothing."

Dr Alamin Sinna Toure, from the Environment and Sanitation Agency in Mali, gave an overview of the challenges facing Mali and the steps taken to meet them.

The bulk of Mali's economy is based on agriculture and fishing, with 80 percent of the population working in agriculture.

"Agriculture is the motor of the Malian economy", said Toure.

Lack of rainfall is one problem. Mali's rainfall fell by 20 percent between 1971 and 2000, and things could get worse. The forecasts are alarming, with a further 11 percent reduction expected by 2025. As the rains dry up, the temperature rises. There could be an increase of between four and 4.5°C.

"The result", said Toure, "is 68 percent of the population will be exposed to food insecurity.

Reviving old agricultural methods may help, according to Adama Kouyaté, from Mali's ministry of agriculture. "We are trying not to rely on rain, by reviving old agricultural techniques. We are reviving old seeds which were used long ago, replanting them and reviving those crops", he explained.

Uncertain rainfall translates into uncertain harvest times. With the seasons based on rainfall, farmers can no longer be sure when the season starts.

"A drought can take place at any cycle of plant growth - all this has repercussions on the reproductive cycle, and affects yield", said Toure. "If we have a year of drought like in 1983/1984, the production system will be hugely affected", he added.

To safeguard its future, Mali has developed a national initiative on climate change and an action plan. The national plan of climatic adaptation has invested in projects which help farmers adapt to climate change.

"The big policy lines involve capacity building in various sectors so each can know their role, promote and develop use of different types of land", explained Toure. "We can thus use more suitable varieties for different areas."

An important aspect is to enable farmers to limit methane emissions especially in irrigator zones.

Two projects in particular provide solutions to problems faced by farmers. The objectives of the Integration of Resilience in Agricultural Production for Food Security are capacity building, standing up to climate change and integrating various strategies in agricultural development projects.

The first component of this project was to change operations on the ground.

"We were trying to multiply the number of varieties of seeds that tolerate stress, and then distribute these seeds", said Toure.

Integrated management of ground fertility, and participative knowledge allowed farmers to adopt better management practice, which resulted in better crops. Hands-on field schools were set up to educate farmers on climate change, and management. To date, 600 centres have been established.

The outcome met expectations. Thirty percent of cultivated areas improved due to implemented strategies.

The ministry of agriculture's project to improve adaptive capacity to climate change included capacity-building for the most vulnerable - the rural population. Targeted communities received agriculture assistance.

Toure stressed this project was dependent on community participation. "Together with the help of the community, the government could help its population. Complete holistic actions are needed to deal with climate change."

Cissé elaborated on the strategic framework. "In July 2010 we developed an agency for sustainable development, and a national council for environment including stakeholders from all sectors-private and public. We also have a fund, Climate Mali, to have necessary investments to adapt or fight off climate change. We've invested in a green economy."

Optimistic of Mali's future, Toure announced an ambition to be an agricultural powerhouse. "We have the ambition and potential, but we lack the funds", he said. The nation supposedly has big potential in terms of agricultural land. "Thirty million hectares of arable land are available for agriculture or herding", claimed Toure.

Despite this potential, Mali remains a poor country with a precarious food supply situation.

allafrica.com