The future of agriculture in Zimbabwe

by John Robertson

MOUNTING evidence that we are about to suffer another massive food shortage and that the costs of importing the shortfall have doubled invites us to focus our attention on an undeniable fact : we have never needed expertise in the farming sector as much as we need it now. Another fact is that the quickest way to start a recovery process that will ease all of the country's economic problems will be to rebuild the foundations of commercial agriculture.

Currently, Zimbabwe's broader options can be placed into three categories : The first is that we carry on as we are now, trying to make about a million small-scale farms work successfully against all the odds. Small farms need subsidies. Even the brilliantly equipped and expertly run farms in Europe need subsidies because farms throughout Europe are small. Zimbabwe, as a developing country, cannot afford subsidies, but subsidies are being paid anyway. To fund them, Zimbabwe has to borrow or print most of the money. The more the government borrows, the larger the budget deficit and the higher the inflation rate; the more it prints, the more vigorously it forces the already severe inflation to rise.

Subsidies that rescue farmers from inadequate performance, if not bankruptcy, also relieve them of the need to improve their operating techniques. Therefore, subsidies help perpetuate low yields, and this they do at very high cost. This generates even more inflation. As government finances become more stretched, budget deficits rise, the shortages become worse and yet more inflation becomes inevitable.

On this track we will not progress. In fact, the stronger probability is that the rural areas in Zimbabwe will become patchworks of derelict farms. More people will migrate to the already overcrowded cities and these pressures will carry Zimbabwe into worsening chaos, increasing conflict and deepening political instability.

The second possibility is that we could try to make our new farmers productive under the discipline of state-run central planning authorities that depend upon the considerable involvement of the military and other uniformed services. At best, we might see these management methods lead to gradual improvements in output, but subsidies will remain essential and the skills that still have to be learned could see us still floundering in 30 years' time.

The third option is to go for large-scale farms. For these, we will have to encourage our experienced farmers to return to the land. They will set tough requirements, but assistance that will certainly be denied under the first two options will undoubtedly become available if we choose this third route. To succeed, we have only to install the components needed to make commercial farming function as a big, successful industry in a modernising economy.

These components are property rights, title deeds, security of tenure and the transferability of land in an open market. Between them, they will give the land the collateral value the farmers need to access essential bank funding and they will give the farmers the confidence to make long-term commitments to create a productive and profitable, subsidy-free industry.

Zimbabwe could start the recovery process almost immediately by re-engaging farmers who know what to do now. With government's acceptance of the need to harness economies of scale, the knowledge and experience of skilled farmers would soon become a driving force in Zimbabwe's economy, and they would make possible the creation of well-structured and viable financial and technical service centres as well as training institutions in the small farming towns around the country.

Special tax advantages and other incentives would be needed, but they would be extremely cost-effective as they would bring about the production of reasonable crops and reduced imports in the shortest possible time. These successes would lead directly to the revitalisation of every other kind of economic activity throughout the country. The farmers would need a lot of assistance to get to work, but the indications are that assistance would be readily offered by the many countries and development agencies that want to see rapid recovery in Zimbabwe. However, no such assistance will be forthcoming if the country remains committed to policies that deny civil and property rights, or depend upon policies of collectivisation and central planning.

We must first agree to work together. Industry, commerce, banking, transport, construction, the tourism sector and the government all need to work with the farmers because none of these can hope to see a revival of their own fortunes until a recovery in agricultural output has started. Once they have worked out their recovery strategies for their separate enterprises, Zimbabwe's re-engaged skilled farmers should be able to rely on considerable local support as well as help from abroad.

However, the essential first step is to redirect government's attention and policy decisions to the country's recovery and future success. No recovery will be possible while government concentrates on a history that cannot be changed. It is the future that matters most, and Zimbabwe's commercial farmers could lead the way in restoring hope for a full recovery of the
country's economic prospects.

Financial Gazette