Prices of Kenya's main cereals, including the staple food, maize, are likely to increase sharply following unfavourable weather conditions in key growing areas and increasingly tight regional supplies, experts at the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) have warned.
A massive displacement of populations around producing zones due to violence triggered by the disputed presidential elections, is also expected to worsen the situation.
A forecast by the UN body said the prospects for the secondary cropping season remained unfavourable due to inadequate short rains.
“The important long season rains normally begin in February-March in south-eastern Kenya and intensifies to the eastern and northern parts. Disruptions in land preparations and planting of seasonal crops due to continuation of current post election disturbances and displacements may cause a severe humanitarian crisis,” FAO said in its report titled: Crop Prospects and Food Situation.
“Northern pastoral areas of Kenya have experienced a below-normal short-rains season. In addition, while control operations are under way, locust swarms in northern Kenya also threaten pastoralists’ access to pasture and browse. Some locations have experienced two consecutive failed seasons.
Analysts said the threats to inflow of grain to various markets could weaken the supply situation in the Eastern Africa sub region where high prices are already being registered especially in Tanzania and Ethiopia.
Statistics from FAO showed that in Kenya, the price of maize maintained a relatively stable run to fluctuate between $199 per tonne and $202 per tonne within the period of May to September last year but began to rise gradually between October-December to realise an average of $211. There was a further price climb in January this year to $219 per tonne.
“Prices reacted to the Government’s announcement of a purchase price of $215 per tonne for the crop recently harvested. Spill over effects of higher import prices also influenced the market. Recent post election disturbances are expected to exacerbate the situation,” FAO explained.
The organisation said in the United Republic of Tanzania, wholesale food prices in all markets are currently higher that normal for this time of the year, due to various factors including increased transport costs from rising fuel prices and a Government campaign for standardisation of grain weights at the farm gate.
Mid last year, the average wholesale maize prices in the capital Dar-es-Salaam stood at $120 per tonne but began rising sharply from August to reach $306 per tonne by December 2007.
In the neighbouring Uganda, prices of maize that had been declining since the beginning of last year, reaching their lowest level at $121 per tonne in September, increased sharply and averaged $168 per tonne two months later- a trend analysts said could worsen especially with the recent post election disturbances in Kenya that have disrupted movement of goods and services to and from the port of Mombasa.
A similar situation has been witnessed in Ethiopia, where notwithstanding the good harvest prospect, grain prices have remained firm in major markets with FAO attributing the trend to various factors such as increased liquidity in the economy due to partially cash based assistance in the safety net programmes which in turn reduced in-kind food aid.
There was also the spread of the credit repayments by farmers throughout the year rather than immediately after harvest which allowed farmers to manage their sales better; budgetary support at district level, which increased effective demand through salary payments; increased formal and informal cross-border trade in grains; local purchases by co-operatives and relief agencies; and increased overall economic activity, especially construction of roads and housing in urban areas.
Business Daily Africa
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