Maize issues:drought-caused yield worries in South Africa, bumper harvest endangers farmer viability in Malawi

Maize is the staple crop of much of sub-Saharan Africa. As such it occupies a vital role in the economies of many countries. For better or for worse, food security in many countries is primarily measured against the availability and affordability of maize. The agricultural prowess of commercial and subsistence farmers is often judged by the size of their maize hectares and yields.

Despite the importance it has assumed in much of Africa, maize can be a notoriously difficult crop to grow in the continent's conditions. It demands a lot in nutrients when much of the continent's soils are suffering the effects of fatigue. Fertilizer to compensate for this is expensive and beyond the ability of particularly small holders to afford. Most of Africa's maize is rain-fed, a problem given drier growing seasons.

When a country's maize yield is below expectations for one reason or another, this has food-security, economic and even political repercussions. Resources have to be found to import maize to make up for the shortfall or calls for international help are urgently sent out.

South Africa, the continent's largest maize producer, is likely to reap 7.7 million tonnes of maize this season, down from an expected 9.3 million tonnes due to unusually dry weather conditions in the country's key planting areas.The yields are more than 17 percent higher than the previous season but producers had hoped to plant even more this season following good early season rainfalls.

"Good early season rainfall in the eastern parts of the country boosted soil moisture levels, but those areas are starting to struggle and conditions in western maize production areas look very poor," the Pretoria- based Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said. CEC said combined with late plantings, this season's crop production could deteriorate even further. With just 6.6 percent of the total area planted on under irrigation and the dry land accounting for 93.4 percent, chances of good rains for late plantings were " not very good," an agricultural analyst said.

Malawi has different maize worries. Last year the country was able to produce 2.61 million tonnes of maize, representing a 510,000 tonnes surplus to the annual national requirement of 2.1 tonnes. Much of the credit for the bumper yield is attributed to the subsidy programme implemented by the government, which enabled farmers to access inputs such as fertilizer at low prices. But it has also seen maize prices, which once hit a record 50 Kwacha per kilogramme or K2,500 per 50 KG bag, reduced to below K20 per KG.

A recent visit to Kampepuza Produce Market in Ntcheu along the Blantyre-Lilongwe M1 Road revealed that farmers were selling their maize at K13 per kilogramme or K650 per 50kg bag. Clearly, these farmers are not recovering the costs of inputs. The farmers said they had no option but to dispose of the maize at give-away prices because of the glut on the market.

Indicators point to another good harvest this year, which means more trouble looms for the Malawian farmer. The country has enjoyed good rainfall and the inputs subsidy programme continues. A repeat of last year's good harvest is likely to send maize prices tumbling even further.

The government appears unprepared to let the country off-load its stock to other countries in the region willing to offer good prices. President Bingu wa Mutharika, who also occupies the Agriculture and Food Security portfolio, has said he will resist pressure from the business community to lift the ban on the export of maize, arguing he will only do so once he is satisfied that Malawi is free from hunger. He said he would consider exports after two to three years of bumper harvests.

Malawi is in the Catch 22 situation of being particularly vulnerable to both reduced and surplus maize harvests. A small surplus sends prices falling, good for consumers but discouraging farmers from production; while drought and reduced yields create scarcity and hence high prices. In a nutshell, the country's maize farming is not stable.

There are many indications that despite its key role in the diet and economies of many Africans, maize will become an increasingly difficult crop to grow, with huge ramifications that seemingly no one is willing to pay much attention to yet. All the "solutions" to dealing with maize issues that can be predicted to recur are short-term. There are calls to concentrate on hardier, better-adapted grains like millet and sorghum. All over Africa are also maize breeding programmes to select for traits such as drought-tolerance, early maturity and pest resistance. But unless there is some dramatically big breakthrough, maize difficulties are likely to plague African agriculture for the foreseeable future.

Chido Makunike

African Agriculture